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Db slides stockholm oct 8 2014 v2.ppt

Seminar: Does life science have a future in Sweden? Stockholm, October 8, 2014 The Third Industrial Revolution: Three main drivers, many Dr David Brown, PhD, FRSC, FRSM Cambridge, UK
email: [email protected]
+44 (0) 7766 686 345
A brief history since the discovery of Viagra Viagra catalysed rapid corporate growth Pfizer ranked number 5 in Viagra positive global pharma at the time of Phase 3 clinical trial results announced; first sales of Viagra in 1998. • Rapid growth in sales and valuation can support borrowing capital to acquire competitors. Pfizer share price 1990-1999 Pfizer became the largest pharma company in the world in the early 2000s following acquisitions of Warner Lambert/Park Davis and

What happened next? More acquisitions. Pfizer market cap: destruction of shareholder value Original market cap pre WL = $150bn + $112bn + $60 + $68 = $390bn
Current market cap = $188bn

Pfizer share price 1995-2014 Johnson and Johnson Inc. AZ research safe in Pfizer's hands? •  What is the name of the last blockbuster drug invented in Pfizer's own labs? •  What year was that drug invented?

R&D Productivity decline. Ratio of aggregate peak sales to R&D (Calculated with a 4 year off-set). Schulze et al. Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, 2014, 331-332 Grey band marks minimum acceptible productivity ratio WHY? See next 3 slides
S-curve of technology development "a generation" = 15-25 years

Ideally successive waves of technology
should overlap
Obsolete
Obsolete
Emerging new technology
Obsolete
Pharma: Gap between old wave and new wave, Induction time
We are now starting the payback phase David Brown, Drug Discovery Today, 2007, 12, 1007-1012 Healthcare / Biotechnology is taking off: NASDAQ Healthcare Index

Where are the jobs of the future? New small companies create net employment, large companies destroy employment Issue Based Industries and Clusters Breed new companies, industries, jobs, & economic growth
Financial Services Cluster Creative
Industries
Wellbeing
Biocluster Mobility
Experience
Industry
Industries
Aerospace & Defence Cluster Critical Success Factors for Clusters Analysis by PwC for the EU, Brussels Clusters enable these Critical Success Factors 1. The availability of funds and funding mechanisms 3. Risk-tolerant culture 4. Availability of entrepreneurial experience / mentoring to turn ideas into business plans then into early stage companies 5. Commercial expertise to develop early stage companies into developed 6. Ability of cluster organisation to positively influence regional and national government All these are more available within a cluster How clusters start 1. Spontaneous clusters - spontaneous agglomeration of key enabling factors. No direct involvement of public funding. Mostly seen in USA and UK. - based on strong science, effective technology transfer, entrepreneurial culture, availability of risk finance, strong legal framework. 2. Policy-driven clusters - result of policies by governments and regions. More common in Europe. - based on e.g. industry-restructuring policies, or policies to develop new 3. Hybrid clusters - elements of both private and public e.g. San Diego USA

Cambridge  had  no  recession  2007-­‐9.     There  is  full  employment   Babraham Research Campus, Cambridge, UK Biotechnology Incubator Breakthroughs that drove the 1st and 2nd Industrial Revolutions 1st Industrial Revolution 2nd Industrial Revolution 1770-1830, England 1870-1920, Germany/ USA 1. Energy: coal, steam 1. Energy: oil, electricity 2. Communication: 2. Communication: cars, canals, railways, highways, telegraph, telephone, aircraft 3. Financial: London 3. Financial: Limited liability

The massive opportunity •  We are in the early stages of the 3rd Industrial Revolution 1st Industrial Revolution: 2nd Industrial revolution: 3rd Industrial Revolution: 1990's - 2030s? •  Europe must participate fully Technology policy and cluster policy are critical

GDP per capita lift-off

Lifespan has increased linearly since the 1st Industrial Revolution 3rd Industrial Revolution What are the 3 breakthroughs? 1. Communication: internet 2. Energy: solar, new (safe) nuclear 3. Financial: internet 'banks', crowd funding Costs dropping dramatically. Performance rising dramatically. NOTE: Still on steep downward trajectories
People today can access free on smartphones capabilities that recently 'Abundance: The future is better than you think'. Diamandis and Kotler 2012 3rd Industrial Revolution What are the 3 breakthroughs? 1. Communication: internet 2. Energy: solar, new (safe) nuclear 3. Financial: internet 'banks', crowd funding Solar power: increasing efficiency Exponential increase in installations - and reduction in price Solar (not gas) is the fastest-growing power generation capacity in USA China - Wuxi Suntech Power expects the cost of electricity from solar
modules to equal coal by 2016-17.CEO Eric Luo

Solar is the most scalable energy source Earth has 10,000 times more sunlight than global energy demand 3rd Industrial Revolution What are the 3 breakthroughs? 1. Communication: internet 2. Energy: solar, new (safe) nuclear 3. Financial: internet 'banks', crowd funding Dematerialisation of finance Google – The New Bank – Rollover BitCoin - GoogleWallet. Pay in store, send/receive money, has banking license in Europe already - Based on Google Android platform which is global already Apple - Apple Pay. Security improved. (iPhone fingerprint sensor). Secure >> credit/debit cards Facebook - registering for banking license in Ireland Younger generation already atuned. Vast customer base already Next - they start lending! Germany: >25% Internet purchases now paid for through Ebay's subsidiary PayPal (>150 billion euros). Now offering credit. Can link credit card to account and charge automatically. Rapid growth in funding start-ups by Crowdfunding in UK & USA •  What is it: individuals act as Angels/ Venture Capitalists •  Origins: Kickstarter USA 2009, rapid take-off 2011 in USA, 2012 in •  Types: several models (donation, early product access, equity, fund) •  Amounts raised: typically thousands to hundreds of thousands $/£/ Euro. Steadily increasing. •  Potential: –  If only HNWs input 2% of investable wealth, it would dwarf VC by an order of magnitude per annum. –  If the general public adds to this, the potential is vast. •  Legislation UK 2014, USA JOBS Act etc •  In UK, Enterprise Investment Scheme encourages investment and new company formation. How to encourage public to invest in new industries
Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS)
Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS) 30% returned via Income Tax (50% returned for SEIS) Any losses can be off-set vs Capital Gains Tax (CGT) or income Tax All gains are CGT free after 3 years No Inheritance Tax on shares bought through EIS SEIS: Up to £100k a year can be invested per person EIS: Up to £1m a year can be invested How much can companies raise under SEIS and EIS? SEIS
Eligilibity requires < 2 years old, <25 employees, < £200k gross assets
Start-up company can raise up to £150k
EIS
Eligibility requires <250 employees and assets <£15m
Company can raise up to £5m per annum, to be used within 2 years in
> £1billion was invested in start-ups by the public under EIS in 2012 Third Industrial Revolution is here. Massive change underway, massive opportunity, but challenges old model in every way. Healthcare and Biotechnology are entering explosive - 2 of the factors of the Third Industrial Revolution are key drivers: Communication/computing/internet and Success factors for clusters must be understood to guide

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